Wansley
Lumber is considering the purchase of a paper company, which would
require an initial investment of $300 million. Wansley estimates
that the paper company would provide net cash flows of $40 million
at the end of each of the next 20 years. The cost of capital for
the paper company is 13%. a. Should Wansley purchase the paper
company? b. Wansley realizes that the cash flows in Years 1 to 20
might be $30 million per year or $50 million per year, with a 50%
probability of each outcome. Because of the nature of the purchase
contract, Wansley can sell the company 2 years after purchase (at
Year 2 in this case) for $280 million if it no longer wants to own
it. Given this additional information, does decision-tree analysis
indicate that it makes sense to purchase the paper company? Again,
assume that all cash flows are discounted at 13%. c. Wansley can
wait for 1 year and find out whether the cash flows will be $30
million per year or $50 million per year before deciding to
purchase the company. Because of the nature of the purchase
contract, if it waits to purchase, Wansley can no longer sell the
company 2 years after purchase. Given this additional information,
does decision-tree analysis indicate that it makes sense to
purchase the paper company? If so, when? Again, assume that all
cash flows are discounted at 13%.
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